Tuesday 16 June 2009

Um crystal ball guess on outcome of heap big powwow today

I'm holding my index fingers pressed against my temples right now, and squinting, trying to guess what the result of the big cheifs meeting in Russia today will be.


I predict there will be an announcement outlining more bilateral trade agreements between the BRIC nations, and that they will settle their trades in their own currencies, rather than in US dollars as customary in the last few decades and very much to the satisfaction of the Yankees.

Most likely, to facilitate the above, there will be pre-authorised currency swaps put in place (large foreign exchange agreements at fixed exchange rates). This will be to minimise currency exchange rate instability, which will sooth any international vendor/buyer uncertainties at either end of those trade transactions.

This is all hugely dollar-negative of course, since US dollars will be in lesser demand than in the past. With growing supply, and shrinking demand, you would expect the value of any given good or service to naturally decline. However, the dollar index will go up rather than down as you might reasonably expect -- because this is not as bad as expected. Many people are anticipating an announcement that will further strengthen the move to a different global reserve currency/currencies, usurping the dollar as the king of global currencies. But I don't think that reality's time has yet come, because key players are not yet sufficiently diversified and will be taken down with the ship if they launch the missiles at USS Dollar right now.

Maybe I'm way off the mark. We'll see soon enough.

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