Thursday 4 February 2010

Greece: Countdown to necessary IMF bailout commences...

The Greek government gets the message and makes a half-hearted start on doing the necessary. The Greek voters, meanwhile, express that they have other ideas.

You think the bond markets will look on this spectacle with a complacent sigh and a smile for the Greeks, while they go back to merrily buying up Greek debt? No, me neither. I check the runes in my forecasting bag of tricks, and I see the euro is off 0.81% (and rising) against the dollar so far today, in spite of a story that Moodys are raising the idea of a US government debt downgrade again today. Yep, I'd say that wasn't good for the Greeks, or Europe as a whole.

Meanwhile, Portugal also find itself under the microscope today. Spain is also starting to get a mention.

The UK is also moving in from the edge of the bond trader radar methinks. Let's hope it stays messier elsewhere, and they let us away with it a while longer, eh? The pound is currently off against the USD by 0.75% (and rising) so far today.

Gold is also down heavily (off 3.4% in USD), mostly since the NY open at 14:00 (UK time). April 2010 1088 PUTs came in handy, deeply out of the money this morning, very much in the money this afternoon. Every little helps.

Another interesting day.

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