Thursday 11 June 2009

ECB concerned all forecasts are based on rosey scenario

The ECB is concerned of a proper disaster, due to widespread European (and US for that matter, but that is not really the concern of the ECB) governments rosey assumptions regarding an economic quick-bounce-back ("V shaped") recovery at the end of 2009 or in 2010. They are thinking its more likely there is a "U shaped" recovery instead -- where recovery comes but it is a little delayed.

I strongly suspect we will see more like an "L shape" -- no real recovery for some time. I hope I'm wrong.

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