Wednesday, 22 December 2010

Global trade is brisk?

The Baltic Dry is a composite index of shipping rates for various bulk goods. When global trade is brisk, the cost of transporting goods (as reflected in this index) is high, and conversely when trade is quiet the index is low. Looking at the chart of $BDI today, below, we can clearly see that global trade is still very much on the ropes since 2008.

You can also look at a chart of many commodities today and see there are high spot prices pretty much across the board. This is something of a divergence, and to me it suggests the high commodity prices are only high due to speculators bidding up paper prices for commodities, with a view towards the upcoming high inflation that they see as a result of rampant currency issuance by the world's Central Banks (most notably the US Fed, but by no means exclusively).

The actual physical demand for the commodities, according to the $BDI, just does not seem to be there. This ought to be implying commodity price deflation, rather than inflation.

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